
Diego Rodríguez Paez
Director of Logistics and Industry Practice
AMI
For the past year, executives have been asking the wrong question.
Every disruption—from the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz, from fuel spikes to tariff shocks— has triggered the same reaction:
“How bad is this going to get?”
That’s the wrong lens because 2026 is not shaping up to be a year when global trade breaks down. It is shaping up to be a year where it moves and not everyone will move with it.
The system isn’t collapsing. It’s relocating.
Yes, ships are rerouting. Yes, cargo is being discharged in the wrong ports. Yes, costs are rising in unpredictable ways.
But step back.
This is not pandemic-level disruption. It’s not even Red Sea-level systemic shock. It’s something more important and more dangerous for those who miss it:
A redistribution of trade flows, margins, and strategic relevance.
Some corridors are weakening. Others are quietly becoming more critical, and most companies are still planning as if the map hasn’t changed.
The biggest shift isn’t vessels. It’s demand.
While the industry watches vessels queue outside chokepoints, something bigger is happening underneath:
The world is reducing its dependence on the U.S. as a demand anchor.
Why? Not because demand disappeared—but because predictability did.
As such, companies are adapting in real time:
- Investing in markets where policy is stable
- Expanding trade across regions that are less volatile
- Building commercial relationships outside traditional flows
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: if U.S. policy were to stabilize tomorrow, it would still take years for companies to trust it again and in that time, global trade patterns are being rewritten.
This is where Latin America enters the picture
In a fragmented world, the winners are not the biggest markets. They are the most strategically flexible ones. That’s why Latin America is no longer a secondary region in global logistics strategy.
It is becoming a priority platform. This isn’t just because of nearshoring to Mexico.
It’s because the region sits at the intersection of:
- industrial relocation
- food and energy supply
- critical minerals
- regional manufacturing
- multi-corridor trade optionality
In other words:
Latin America is not replacing Asia. It is complementing it in a more complex system.
And that makes it more valuable than it has been in decades.
Trade Flows Are Shifting Across Latin America
AMI’s Disruption Risk research helps you identify corridor pressure points, assess market exposure, and plan with more confidence across Latin America.
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Disruption is accelerating that shift—not slowing it
The current shocks in Hormuz, the Red Sea, and fuel volatility don’t weaken the Latin America case.
They reinforce it.
Because when global corridors become unreliable, companies prioritize:
- Proximity to end markets
- Diversification of supply
- Alternative routing options
- Regional production capabilities
Latin America offers all four. Not perfectly. But sufficiently.
And in a world of uncertainty, LatAm being “sufficiently reliable” beats “theoretically optimal.”
The opportunity—and the trap—for logistics providers
This is where the gap is opening. Most logistics providers see Latin America as a growth market. That’s incomplete.
It is a positioning market.
And that requires a different playbook:
- Think in corridors, not countries
- Sell resilience, not just freight
- Build around sectors, not generic coverage
- Protect margins as aggressively as you pursue volume
Because Latin America rewards the right strategy—and punishes the wrong one quickly.
What 2026 is really telling you
Forget the noise. Forget the week-to-week volatility. The signal is clear:
- Trade is fragmenting
- Demand is relocating
- Networks are being redrawn
And the companies that win won’t be the ones that react fastest to disruption.
They’ll be the ones who recognize where the system is stabilizing next.
Final thought
For years, Latin America was treated as optional—a region to serve once the core network was optimized.
That era is over.
In a world where global trade is less predictable, less centralized, and more politically exposed, the winners won’t be the ones reacting fastest to disruption.
They’ll be the ones that:
- Identify where demand is actually shifting—and move early
- Build real visibility into which customers, corridors, and services drive profitable growth
- Protect value by anticipating where margins leak as networks become more complex
Latin America is no longer the backup plan.
It is one of the few regions where all three of those decisions are happening at once.
And in 2026, the real divide won’t be between companies that faced disruption and those that didn’t.
It will be between those that used this moment to reposition their business—
and those that kept optimizing a map that no longer exists.
Reposition Your Strategy for Latin America
AMI’s Strategic Planning Research & Advisory helps companies refine priorities, evaluate market shifts, and build stronger growth plans across the region.
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