Diego Rodríguez Paez
Director of Logistics and Industry Practice
AMI
Chancay’s volumes are up 71% year-on-year, vessel calls are up 44%, and at the current growth rate the port hits its declared 1-million-TEU ceiling by the second half of 2027. But the throughput numbers are the least interesting part of this story.
What matters is what COSCO does when that ceiling arrives — and whether DP World and APM Terminals are still planning their own Callao investment around Chancay.
Peru’s COSCO-controlled Chancay port has handled 502,646 TEU cumulatively since its November 2024 opening, with volume in the first half of 2026 alone up 70.94% year on year. Vessel calls rose 44% in the first five months of 2026 versus the same period in 2025. Its declared phase-one capacity ceiling is 1 million TEU per year.
If that growth rate holds through 2026 and into 2027, and there’s no structural reason yet visible to expect it to slow, given COSCO is still actively building out feeder routes to Panama, Guayaquil, and four Chilean terminals, Chancay hits its 1-million-TEU phase-one ceiling in the second half of 2027. We assume continued high-double-digit annual growth off a 2026 base in the 400,000–450,000 TEU range for the full year, which is consistent with the acceleration already visible in the first half.
AMI’s call: COSCO commits to Phase 2, and announces it before the end of 2027, ahead of the ceiling, not in reaction to it. The either/or is a false choice: COSCO did not build the west coast’s only Chinese-controlled deepwater hub, and then wire four Chilean terminals plus Panama and Guayaquil into it, to let the asset cap out at a million TEU. That decision, whichever way it goes, is the real signal for how much structural share Chancay permanently pulls from Callao’s west coast dominance, not the throughput figures most coverage is currently focused on. We’d flag this as the single most useful thing for any west coast-exposed carrier or terminal operator to be tracking over the next 18 months, well before it becomes an obvious headline.
What is the impact for other port terminal operators? For DP World and APM Terminals, the two concessionaires holding Callao’s south and north quays, the question is which volume they will lose to Chancay, and whether the growth assumptions underwriting their own Callao capex still hold if COSCO doubles capacity next door.
Peruvian gateway cargo tied to Lima consumption and inland distribution is comparatively sticky. Transshipment and Asia-direct exportable are not; they follow the deepest berth and the direct string, and a Phase 2 announcement is the moment that becomes permanent rather than cyclical. So the real question both operators should be putting to their boards is this:
How much of our Callao volume is structurally mobile, and are we still investing against a forecast that assumed Chancay stayed a one-million-TEU port?
How AMI Can Help You
We can deliver market intelligence that fills in these crucial strategic blanks:
- Chancay Capacity & Diversion Forecast: Projects the Phase 1 ceiling breach and Phase 2 timing, and quantifies the transshipment and Asia-direct volume permanently at risk for Callao.
- Callao Mobile-vs-Captive Volume Study: Splits DP World and APM’s Callao book into sticky and mobile share at the shipper and forwarder level, with the switching cost gap priced.
How Exposed Is Your Callao Volume?
AMI combines market data, local intelligence, and strategic analysis to separate captive cargo from volumes that could move to Chancay.
CONTACT AMI TODAYWhy You Need Our Help
Ports companies are full of strategic thinkers and master planners.
It’s almost a 100% certainty that they already have contingency plans in place for Chancay’s expansion.
But those plans may not be enough: conditions change rapidly, new factors pop up, and what were solid action steps before can quickly become bad ideas.
But with AMI, you get:
- A wide scope of data to fuel decision-making based on a longer view
- On-the-ground intelligence from our local team to show you changes as they happen
- Strategic guidance to help your team factor in new data and the bigger picture and map out your next steps confidently
Of course, none of this helps if you’re not ready to act.
The window is short—18 months max.
If you’re not moving quickly within that time frame with rock-solid intelligence, your data could well point more to losses rather than gains because of Chancay’s rapid growth.
Contact us so we can deliver the edge you need to win as Chancay’s expansion surges.
Prepare for Chancay’s Next Move
Get the intelligence you need to assess volume migration, capacity expansion scenarios, and the long-term implications for Callao investments.
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