Diego Rodríguez Paez
Director of Logistics and Industry Practice
AMI
Trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico have placed immense pressure on businesses that rely on seamless cross-border supply chains. With tariffs looming, companies are scrambling to protect their interests and ensure continued market stability. In the multiple interviews AMI has conducted over the past four weeks, a common theme identified is that businesses are actively engaging behind the scenes with government officials to emphasize the importance of stability in North America, as disrupting the Free Trade framework would be akin to self-sabotage.
Major corporations like General Motors, Ford, and Caterpillar have been lobbying the U.S. and Mexican governments to negotiate sector deals to prevent escalating tariffs. The American Automotive Policy Council and companies in the agricultural sector, like Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland, have been pushing for stable trade policies to safeguard cross-border food exports.
In response, President Trump has hurried to control the narrative by leveraging the potential for a tariff transition period and possible economic adjustments to keep foreign governments and the private sector uncertain about the upcoming deadline, as these extensions counter his storyline.
How Tariff Threats Are Impacting Shippers
Since March 6th, logistics firms, trucking providers, and customs brokers at the border have experienced an increased influx of goods. Many shippers paused shipments during the first weekend of March in anticipation of possible tariff adjustments, hoping to avoid additional costs. As a result, delays at border crossings have intensified, and transshipment facilities are operating near full capacity.
Specific bottlenecks have emerged in customs processing and transshipment operations. At major border crossings such as Laredo and El Paso, customs officials are overwhelmed with the backlog of shipments, leading to processing delays exceeding 48 hours in some cases. Additionally, transshipment hubs in cities like Nuevo Laredo and Ciudad Juárez have reported warehouse overflow, forcing some shipments to keep the freight on trailers waiting for space to free up.
We are seeing a surge in cross-border shipments and rates in anticipation of new U.S. tariffs on April 2nd. In Laredo, Texas, load volumes have increased by double digits since March 6th. The limited capacity caused by delays and the surge in demand is driving a spike in spot rates for both dry van and refrigerated shipments, which is expected to continue throughout March.
Additionally, more companies are now applying for USMCA qualification through the rules of origin certification process. Previously, this step was often considered redundant, particularly for goods already classified as duty-free. Some businesses are even restructuring shipments by breaking them into separate components to exclude items that might be subject to new tariffs.
What to Expect on April 2nd
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada were enforced on March 4th, primarily driven by Trump’s desire to showcase decisive action, dominate headlines, and project power. The timing coincided with his State of the Union Address, allowing him to use the national stage to emphasize economic protectionism. This will likely repeat on April 2nd, with tariffs targeted at Europe and China. Mexico is well-positioned to ink another extension, although targeted tariffs on specific sectors are likely.
Why may Mexico get another extension? Four significant issues can explain it:
Border Security
Since Trump’s first term, Mexico has been a focal point in discussions on migration and fentanyl trafficking. In November, Trump’s initial tariff threats linked trade policies with border security, a topic central to his campaign. Recent developments include increased cooperation between the two governments, such as CIA drones monitoring fentanyl labs in Mexico, high-profile drug lord arrests, and heightened extradition efforts.
Immigration
February saw the lowest apprehensions at the border in decades. Among the 38 million Mexican descendants in the U.S., approximately 5 million are undocumented. The U.S. government deported around 16,000 Mexican nationals in early March 2025. If logistical challenges are resolved, the total number of Mexican deportations for the year could range between 200,000 and 300,000. From a tariffs standpoint, these numbers could convince the Trump administration that Mexico is working hard to stem the flow of illegal migrants, which may lead to an extension of the tariff exemptions and could provide an unexpected boost to Mexico’s logistics sector by supplying much-needed labor throughout 2025.
Trade with China
The focus has been on limiting Mexico’s deepening economic ties with China. Trade between Mexico and China has doubled since 2018, which has heightened U.S. concerns about China’s growing presence in North American supply chains. The underlying goal of the tariffs on Mexico is to disrupt the trade bridge that China established in 2021. Stakeholders who are familiar with the tariff negotiations have told us that it’s likely that Mexico will place tariffs on Chinese products similar to the ones placed by the US. With these Mexican tariffs on Chinese products in place, the flow of Chinese products into Mexico and the US will dramatically decrease. If Mexico agrees to this US demand, the country will receive tariff exemptions beyond April 2.
USMCA Renegotiation in 2025
Trump is expected to push for revisions before the end of 2025. A likely outcome is the introduction of new North American tariffs to limit China’s influence in key sectors such as auto parts and high-tech manufacturing. Additionally, Chinese companies suspected of circumventing U.S. tariffs by relocating production to Mexico may face tighter scrutiny. Drawing from a legal precedent set by the European Court of Justice in 2024—when Harley-Davidson’s attempt to avoid EU tariffs by shifting production to Thailand was ruled illegal—Trump may adopt similar measures. This would mean that products from Chinese firms could be subject to the same duties if exported directly from China, negating any benefit of operating in Mexico.
Conclusion
As April 2nd approaches, increased volatility in cross-border trade is anticipated, and new tariffs will be introduced. We may see a more orderly tariff rollout from the USTR, resulting in a list of tariff ranges by country focusing on 15-20 countries where the US has the most significant trade deficits. These countries will likely attempt to negotiate limits on the tariffs, and if no agreement is reached, they will probably levy retaliatory tariffs. For Mexico, this process could result in some tariffs being applied—but also a good number of exemptions that will be extended.
Or not. As everyone knows, it’s tough to make predictions about what the Trump administration will do next, as seen by the tariff whiplash that has occurred since early February. Regardless, the logistics team at AMI will continue to monitor the situation to offer our clients and audience the latest developments and analysis to help them map the way forward as the tariff situation unfolds.
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