Diego Rodríguez Paez
Director of Logistics and Industry Practice
AMI
As the U.S. continues its heavy-handed approach to trade and tensions ripple across global supply chains, logistics managers are grappling with questions about warehousing demand, trade volumes, and the long-term viability of key infrastructure. In recent AMI interviews, we have spoken with seasoned logistics executives to explore how tariffs are reshaping the logistics landscape in the Americas, with a special focus on U.S.–Mexico cross-border trade.
USMCA Trade Largely Shielded — for Now
While new U.S. tariffs make headlines, most cross-border trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada remains unaffected—thanks to protections under the USMCA agreement. Products qualifying under USMCA rules are still largely duty-exempt, especially in core industrial and consumer goods categories.
However, key sectors face exceptions:
- Automobiles: President Donald Trump walked back the tariffs on the sector, and cars that have at least 85% of their components made in America will not have any tariff imposed on them.
- Steel & Aluminum: Subject to a 25% duty, even under USMCA — impacting costs and production timelines.
Implication: Companies with North American sourcing strategies remain mostly insulated, but auto and metals manufacturers are reassessing production locations and logistics planning.
Warehousing Demand Slumps on the U.S. and Mexico Side
There is an apparent slowdown in warehousing demand across key U.S. logistics hubs, including regions as far north as California’s Bay Area. This is attributed to:
- Sluggish import volumes from Asia are likely in April and May
- Market uncertainty stemming from tariff policies
- Long-term overcapacity in U.S. warehouses, particularly if tariffs depress inbound volumes and drive shippers to hold back.
A reorganization of global supply chains to avoid tariffs is delaying decisions on leasing or contracting new space in Mexico, primarily in markets such as Monterrey, Tijuana, Ciudad Juárez, and Mexico City.
Implication: Expect softening warehouse rates in the U.S. and Mexico as vacancy rates grow.
90-Day Tariff Pauses May Spark Preemptive Import Surges
Drawing from experience during the 2018 tariff wave and March trade numbers, we anticipate that retailers and importers in the US may bring in inventory from Asia and Europe over the next two months.
Evidence already points to:
- Rising demand for space from Southeast Asian suppliers
- Buildups in warehouse inventories tied to durable goods
- Retailers are looking for alternative potential sourcing locations for clothes and shoes. Central America, Colombia, and Brazil could be potential winners
Implication: Temporary policy delays can trigger brief warehousing booms — particularly in ports and transshipment hubs — though these are unlikely to offset broader slowdowns.
Tariffs May Not Spike Industrial Real Estate Prices — Yet
While tariffs could lead to short-term price adjustments, the broader industrial real estate footprint near the border will not expand in 2025 or 2026. Instead, real estate trends will likely depend on:
- Retailer stocking strategies
- Onshoring/nearshoring timelines
- Long-term confidence in tariff stability
If warehouses remain underutilized, some downward pressure on industrial lease rates may emerge, especially in the U.S.
South America May Deepen Intra-Regional Trade
Beyond North America, we see an opportunity for stronger intra-South American trade, particularly in light of global realignments:
- Brazil and Argentina could redirect exports toward regional partners and the U.S.
- South America may gain renewed relevance as an alternative market for European exporters.
- Regional trade liberalization (as seen in Canada) could inspire similar moves within South America.
Implication: As traditional trade routes face friction, South American economies may become more regionally integrated — a trend to watch closely for logistics planners.
Next Steps
At AMI (Americas Market Intelligence), we help companies navigate uncertainty with precise, data-driven insights. Whether you’re evaluating warehouse investment opportunities, monitoring competitor activity, or planning your next market entry, our team delivers the actionable intelligence you need to make smarter decisions. Contact us for a free consultation.
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