Diego Rodríguez Paez
Director of Logistics and Industry Practice
AMI
It’s a Supply Shock Story—and it’s reshaping margins in Latin America.
Reefer volumes are growing—but not for the reasons most operators think.
Growth in 2025 was supply-driven, not demand-driven.
That shift is creating:
- Corridor imbalances
- Pricing volatility
- And inconsistent margins
In 2026, this will separate operators who capture value from those who chase volume.
What changed
The industry still operates on a simple assumption:
Demand drives reefer growth.
That assumption is breaking.
In 2025:
- Strong harvest cycles increased available supply
- Volumes moved regardless of demand forecasts
- Trade flows shifted faster than planning cycles
The result: volume growth without margin predictability.
Why Latin America Matters
Latin America is where this shift is most visible—and most consequential.
- Strong production cycles in Chile, Peru, Mexico
- Increased exportable supply across fresh categories
- Greater intra-regional balancing flows
Countries like Brazil and Mexico—despite being producers—continued sourcing from regional suppliers to offset seasonal gaps.
This created short-term spikes in demand, not driven by consumption, but by timing and supply availability.
What This Creates: A Structurally Different Market
When supply drives the market:
- Volumes become volatile
- Corridors behave unpredictably
- Equipment positioning becomes harder
- Margins vary significantly across the same network
The same volume can either create profit—or destroy it.
Where Operators Are Losing Money
Across forwarders, carriers, and air cargo players, three consistent gaps emerge:
1
Growth without prioritization
Volume is pursued without distinguishing:
- High-margin from low-margin cargo
- Structural from temporary demand
2
Lack of corridor-level visibility
Most operators cannot clearly answer:
- Where they actually make money
- Which flows are worth scaling
3
Margin leakage under volatility
When supply surges:
- Pricing discipline weakens
- Capacity is misallocated
- Decisions become reactive
This is most visible in air cargo, where modal shifts are captured opportunistically—not strategically.
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LEARN MOREWhat Winning Operators Are Doing Differently
The leading players are not relying on better forecasts.
They are building better decision systems.
They focus on three capabilities:
Grow — Prioritize the right demand
- Identify where supply and margin align
- Focus on high-yield segments and customers
- Capture mode shifts (ocean ↔ air) intentionally
Measure — Understand true profitability
- Corridor-level margin visibility
- Customer segmentation based on value
- Demand signals that incorporate supply dynamics
Protect — Maintain discipline under pressure
- Avoid pricing erosion during spikes
- Allocate capacity based on margin, not volume
- Reduce value leakage during disruption
What This Means for 2026
Reefer will continue to grow.
But growth will be:
- Uneven
- Volatile
- And increasingly supply-driven
The winners will not be those who move more cargo.
They will be those who:
- Select the right cargo
- Prioritize the right corridors
- Execute with discipline as the market shifts
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