Historically, regulations in Latin America have served less as a guardrail and more as a maze: complex, driven by politics, and frustratingly unpredictable.
That’s changing, though it’s not a universal shift by any means, nor is it straightforward, given the forces and stakeholders at play.
As part of our 2026 Forecast for Latin America, AMI’s practice leaders examined how the changing regulatory environment may open a range of new opportunities in the near and medium term, at least in energy and logistics. In payments, however, the push is toward more regulation, so in that area we focused less on opportunities and more on what to expect and how it can affect your strategies in the future.
Billions in Energy Projects Could Be Unlocked in Key Markets
As political winds in countries have moved rightward (which we covered in our 2026 regional outlook for Latin America), a more technocratic approach is being embraced in certain markets. For example, while the president is quite important in Brazil, Congress is arguably the real power broker. Over the last 30 years in Brazilian politics, we’ve seen a shift toward a more pragmatic mindset that is pro-investment. As a result, in late July 2025, Brazil’s Congress passed an environmental licensing reform bill.
This is a major development: this reform could unlock over R$1 trillion (US$180 billion) in energy projects in Brazil. For context, as of October 2025, Brazil has received $74.2 billion in foreign direct investment, less than half the value of these projects.
In Argentina, President Milei has made deregulation a key part of his platform. Under the Peronists, by any measure Argentina was an over-regulated market — and one of the areas that he’s deregulating is the electricity sector, whether it’s generation, transmission, storage, etc. AMI analysts are expecting that nearly US$10 billion in new investment could arise from this deregulation. That said, there are political headwinds and macroeconomic instability to content with, so the opportunity roadway is far from open and clear.
When it comes to the energy transition, Chile has led the region because it doesn’t have extensive oil and gas reserves. In particular, the country has embraced solar energy. While solar isn’t viable without a robust energy infrastructure, part of the reason that Chile leads the region is because of the clarity of its rules, the pro-business philosophy behind its rules and business models, and the sheer amount of money that is already in play and which is dedicated to expanding and creating 4.8 gigawatts of renewable energy storage projects. As such, Chile is the model to follow as the rest of the region embraces energy transition.
That said, currently the thinking in the energy industry is no longer about transition — any form of energy is on the table. Our worldwide energy demand is running at about three times its historic level because of AI and the data centers this technology requires, so no electricity source is off the table, whether conventional or renewable. As a result, Latin America in general is embracing the need to deregulate and foster investment in electricity generation and transmission.
Political Shifts Could Power Logistics Opportunities
The major policy shift in 2025 was obviously US tariffs. While it appears that a framework of trade deals between the US and four countries (Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Guatemala) was recently announced, there are still many uncertainties—including when and how the US Supreme Court will rule regarding the tariffs.
One immediate trend—and opportunity—that this has sparked is that more shippers are requesting advice from their logistics service providers to understand how they can minimize the effect of tariffs on their supply chain. This allows these providers to serve as consultants, possibly opening a new revenue stream.
Politically, the rightward political shift could spur deregulation in certain markets that would favor logistics, such as Chile. In mid-December 2025, there will be a runoff election between leftist candidate Jeannette Jara and ultraconservative José Antonio Kast. If Kast wins, we could see more pro-business policies in Chile. Despite the country’s free trade deals, it has an entrenched bureaucracy that hinders permit issuance. A report entitled “The Economic Cost of Red Tape Policy” by the Centro de Estudios Públicos indicates that red tape costs Chile 7.3% of its GDP. In 2024 the Universidad de San Sebastián published a study on “permisología” in Chile and estimated that bureaucratic delays in permits cost the country nearly US$2 billion in 2023. With a right-wing president, this may change.
This also could happen in Colombia if a far-right candidate like Abelardo de la Espriella is elected. In Brazil, a new tax regime was passed that will begin in 2026 and be fully implemented by 2033. This could have a significant impact on logistics, as the tax system will shift from four to only two.
As a result of its earlier tax system, Brazil offers very attractive tax incentives in some locations where it doesn’t make sense to locate a manufacturing or distribution center, thereby creating unusual distribution networks for companies. But under the new regime at AMI, we expect to see more consolidation, likely merging manufacturing with distribution or wholesale operations, as well as trucking and cabotage combinations.
In LatAm Payments, More Regulation Is the Trend Reshaping the Industry
While regulation rollbacks are the trend in LatAm’s energy and logistics sectors, in payments it’s the opposite. The extra oversight and rules are particularly focused on real-time payments, interoperability, compliance standards, and card-network competition. The end result of this shift will likely compress traditional revenue models and force banks and fintechs to rethink how they compete. In 2026 and beyond, we’ll see this play out in 3 areas:
1. A2A payments and RTP
It’s clear that A2A and RTP will continue to gain share of checkout—and regulators, primarily central banks and other financial authorities, are well-aware of this. Colombia’s launch of Bre-B in September 2025—modeled closely on Brazil’s PIX—signals the region’s continued alignment with global RTP adoption. Peru is advancing its own RTP infrastructure, even consulting the architects of India’s UPI system, while Argentina has mandated QR-code interoperability. These moves reaffirm the same trend: regulators are deliberately steering the consumer economy toward payment rails that are faster, cheaper, and interoperable. All of this points to money movement continuing to be commoditized.
This is pushing the industry toward creating innovative ways to make money by lending money and capturing deposits. As such, banks and fintechs Banks and fintechs increasingly have to create strategies for customer engagement and for loyalty as with RTP and the advance of open banking. A lot of banks with a big brand recognition or fintechs with a large network lose a little bit of their competitive advantage.
2. Sharp rises in compliance costs
With increased regulatory oversight and more compliance requirements, banks and fintechs have to allocate more resources to stay compliant. As a result, they have to be choosey about where to invest. This may slow investment in other technology areas, such as open banking or moving into cloud services. For fintechs, increasing compliance costs will make it harder for them to scale. The result could be faster exits out of certain markets or more acquisition opportunities popping up—which we could help you identify.
3. Promoting interoperability and increasing competition in card processing
This is playing out in Mexico, where the National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV) and Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) issued a draft of new provisions to lower operating costs and prevent private entities from unilaterally setting market conditions. In Chile, in July 2025, the Financial Market Commission issued regulatory amendments on payment card issuers. There have also been antitrust cases centered around fees, including alleged credit fee collusion by banks in Mexico, and increasing regulation on price controls in the industry.
In Mexico and in other markets, these regulations could improve competitiveness and offer more opportunity for digital entrants to succeed.
Next Steps
Contact us to help you identify the growing opportunities in logistics and energy driven by regulatory shifts. With an opportunity benchmarking study that integrates regulatory risk trends analysis, we can reveal the areas to explore.
In payments, our sister company PCMI can help your company evaluate its regulatory risk in Latin America and also conduct opportunity benchmarking to unlock opportunities stemming from regulatory issues, such as acquisition potential. Contact PCMI directly to learn more.
