Colombia’s Energy Future Is on the Ballot
 In Energy
Valentina Meneses

Valentina Meneses
Energy Practice Co-Director
AMI

Colombia enters its 2026 election cycle with a critical question for its energy sector:

How can the transition be accelerated without jeopardizing supply security, competitive rates, and investor confidence?

This isn’t just an abstract discussion. SER Colombia—the Colombian Renewable Energy Association—warned that by next year, the country could face a structural energy deficit if the next administration does not speed up the implementation of renewable energy projects.

According to the association, Colombia currently has more than 3,053 MW of non-conventional renewable capacity in operation or undergoing testing. This is the equivalent of approximately 14% of total electricity generation capacity, in addition to another 1,180 MW in distributed solutions. However, more than 5,086 MW lack financial closure, tied up by regulatory delays, connection bottlenecks, and slow-moving licensing processes.1

SER Colombia’s roadmap sets out six priorities for the next administration:

  1. Accelerate grid connections and expansion
  1. Modernize the electricity market
  1. Unblock licensing
  1. Promote battery storage
  1. Remove barriers for small generators
  1. Establish a long-term energy policy 

This agenda has significant economic promise: if the planned projects are sped up, the country could save up to COP 7 trillion in electricity rates over the next few years.2

Where the Promise and the Politics Clash

SER’s six-step process seems straightforward. But in Colombia’s  highly polarized political landscape, enacting it is challenging. For starters, the leading presidential candidates offer very different visions regarding the role of hydrocarbons, the pace of the energy transition, community participation, and the state’s role in strategic companies such as Ecopetrol.

Iván Cepeda represents continuity, offering a more accelerated environmental and energy transition agenda. His proposals include opposition to fracking, protection of strategic ecosystems, a transition to clean and renewable sources, and a vision of regional development based on the bioeconomy and ecosystem services.3

Paloma Valencia, on the other hand, proposes a vision in which the mining and energy sector must be the engine of economic growth and social financing. Her agenda advocates for increased production of hydrocarbons and minerals, including environmentally regulated fracking outside sensitive ecosystems, as well as a policy more favorable to private investment and energy security.4

Abelardo de la Espriella has also advocated for a strong revival of the oil and gas sector, with new exploration contracts, a push for unconventional projects, and a thorough overhaul of Ecopetrol to restore its technical, operational, and financial capacity.5

In other words, Colombia is not merely facing an energy challenge. It is facing a problem of strategic decision-making under uncertainty.

The 3 Dilemmas That Will Shape Colombia’s Energy Sector

SER Colombia’s roadmap and the candidates’ proposals reveal three major tensions that will define the business environment for generators, investors, technology providers, industrial companies, utilities, and financial institutions.

1. Execution vs. Permitting

The main bottleneck does not appear to be a lack of investor interest, but rather the system’s capacity to convert projects into available energy. SER Colombia notes that nearly 70% of a project’s development time can be lost to red tape, with delays sometimes reaching 2,000 days.6

This will be a crucial issue for any elected administration. An administration that focuses more on the transition will need to expedite licensing and grid connection so that renewables become realities, not just good ideas. An administration that chooses to focus more on hydrocarbons will also have to streamline permitting if it wants to revive exploration, production, transmission, or thermal generation.

2. Energy Transition vs. Energy Security

Cepeda advocates for a faster transition and reduced dependence on the extractive model. Valencia and De la Espriella, on the other hand, believe that gas, oil, and mining must continue to play a central role in the economy and in Colombia’s energy security.

However, the real tension is not simply “renewables vs. hydrocarbons.” The strategic question is: How should the country build a reliable, financeable, and politically viable energy mix?

Colombia already relies heavily on hydropower, which makes it vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, technologies such as solar, wind, batteries, natural gas, geothermal, and transmission must be evaluated not only based on their cost but also on how much they contribute to the system’s resilience.

The recent progress of the Nereidas geothermal project, led by Ecopetrol, Baker Hughes, and CHEC, demonstrates precisely how the transition can open opportunities for traditional players in the oil sector to reposition themselves in low-carbon technologies.7

3. Investment vs. Political and Social Risk

The next administration will set very different regulatory signals. Under a more progressive agenda, investors will need to better understand the role of communities, consultations, territorial participation, and a just transition. Under a more pro-hydrocarbons agenda, the challenge will be to assess the actual pace of the sector’s reopening, the reputational risks, the social license to operate, and regulatory stability.

In both scenarios, companies will need more than just a general political reading of the situation. They will need actionable intelligence: where to invest, with which partners, under what risks, with what narrative, and with what entry or expansion strategy.

Given this challenging context, Americas Market Intelligence (AMI) can help companies, investors, and institutions make better decisions in three areas: Grow, Measure, and Protect.

Grow

Identify where to grow amid a fragmented transition

Colombia’s energy transition will not create uniform opportunities. Some will be in utility-scale renewable generation; others in storage, distributed generation, transmission, gas, data center services, industrial infrastructure, energy efficiency, or solutions for commercial and industrial customers.

AMI can support companies seeking to grow in Colombia by:

  • Prioritizing opportunities by technology, region, and customer type
  • Entry strategies for equipment suppliers, developers, utilities, EPCs, and investment funds
  • Evaluating local partners, commercial channels, and potential market access routes
  • Benchmarking opportunities against other Latin American markets

This is particularly relevant in a country where the opportunity exists, but capturing it will depend on less obvious variables: connection capacity, permitting timelines, community acceptance, regulation, contract structures, and tariff signals.

For a storage company, for example, it’s not enough to know that Colombia needs batteries.

It must understand where storage solves a real problem: grid congestion, backup for renewables, stability for industrial customers, price arbitrage, or reliability in areas with transmission constraints.

Measure

Quantify the market before committing capital

The second challenge is to correctly measure the size of the opportunity. The potential COP 7 trillion in savings projected by SER Colombia is impressive, but investors have a much  more specific concern: what portion of that value can each technology, segment, or type of company capture?

AMI can develop studies such as:

  • Market snapshots of the Colombian energy sector
  • Demand models by region, industrial sector, or customer type
  • Commercial feasibility studies for solar, wind, gas, storage, or transmission projects
  • Forecasts of energy technology adoption
  • Assessment of willingness to pay and the needs of industrial customers
  • Voice of the Customer surveys with companies, utilities, developers, EPCs, and large consumers

This type of analysis allows us to translate a macro narrative—“Colombia needs more renewables and grid infrastructure”—into concrete decisions: which segments to prioritize, what market size is actually accessible, what barriers limit market capture, and what assumptions must be met for the project to be financeable.

Protect

Anticipate regulatory, political, and reputational risks

The 2026 presidential election heightens the need to protect investments. Companies must not only understand who might win, but also how the business environment would change under each scenario.

AMI can assist with:

These strategic actions are all key for players in Colombia’s energy sector because the candidates’ proposals do not affect all stakeholders equally. For example:

A victory for Cepeda could accelerate opportunities in renewables, energy communities, a just transition, and the restructuring of Ecopetrol, but it would increase the risk for projects associated with fracking or oil expansion.

A victory for Valencia or De la Espriella could improve the outlook for hydrocarbons, gas, and mining, but it would also require careful management of social license, territorial conflicts, and environmental reputation.

Regardless of who wins the presidency, the risk does not disappear—it simply takes on a different form.

From Election Analysis to Business Strategy

SER Colombia’s roadmap shows that Colombia’s energy problem is urgent. The energy platforms developed by presidential candidates clearly show that any solution proposed will be politically contested.

And that is where market intelligence becomes indispensable.

For renewable energy developers, the challenge will be to identify which projects are most likely to move forward and under what conditions regarding grid connection, contracting, and licensing.

For technology providers, the opportunity will lie in understanding which solutions will be prioritized: batteries, grid automation, distributed generation, energy efficiency, transmission equipment, or hybrid solutions.

For investors, the question will be how to allocate capital in a market where potential is high, but execution remains the primary risk.

For hydrocarbon players, the challenge will be to assess whether Colombia is opening a new window for expansion or moving toward a more restrictive transition.

AMI can help answer these questions by combining primary research, quantitative analysis, political insight, and regional expertise. Its value lies not only in describing the market but in turning uncertainty into decisions: where to enter, where to wait, who to partner with, which risks to mitigate, and how to adapt strategy based on the election results.

Colombia is nearing an energy decision that will shape its competitiveness over the next decade. SER Colombia’s warning is clear: without implementation, infrastructure, licenses, and market signals, the country could face energy shortages and higher rates starting in 2027. At the same time, the proposals put forward by Cepeda, Valencia, and De la Espriella show that the country’s energy path will depend heavily on the election results.

For companies, this is not a time to sit back and watch passively. It is a time to assess opportunities, anticipate scenarios, and protect investments.

In an environment where the energy transition, supply security, and public policy are advancing at different paces, AMI offers a strategic intelligence platform to help companies and investors grow, assess, and protect their business in Colombia and Latin America.

Contact us to learn more.

Sources

  1. De la Hoz G., N. (2026, may 20). SER Colombia propone hoja de ruta para acelerar renovables y ahorrar $7 billones en tarifas. Forbes Colombia. ↩︎
  2. De la Hoz G., N. (2026, mayo 2). SER Colombia propone hoja de ruta para acelerar renovables y ahorrar $7 billones en tarifas. Forbes Colombia. ↩︎
  3. VotaBien. (s.f.). Medio ambiente. VotaBien. ↩︎
  4. Acosta, L. J. (2026, mayo 20). Colombian presidential candidate Valencia vows end to ‘total peace’ policy, will be tougher on security. Reuters. ↩︎
  5. Redacción País. (2026, marzo 19). De la Espriella propone “rescatar” a Ecopetrol y cuestiona su manejo actual. El Heraldo. ↩︎
  6. De la Hoz G., N. (2026, mayo 20). SER Colombia propone hoja de ruta para acelerar renovables y ahorrar $7 billones en tarifas. Forbes Colombia. ↩︎
  7. Bocanegra, N. y O’Boyle, B. (2026, mayo 20). Colombia clears exploratory phase of Ecopetrol-led geothermal project. Reuters. ↩︎

Keep up to date with our Energy insights

author avatar
Valentina Meneses Energy Practice Co-Director
Valentina is a strategy advisor and co-lead of the Energy practice at AMI. She works at the intersection of energy transition, digital infrastructure, and ESG-driven extractive markets in Latin America.
See Full Bio
Go to market strategy Opportunity benchmarking Partner research Strategic Planning Research Project Feasibility Competitive Intelligence Energy market intelligence
social network icon
Recommended Posts