Diego Rodríguez Paez
Director of Logistics and Industry Practice
AMI
The landscape of the Latin American logistics industry in 2025 promises to be dynamic, shaped by global economic shifts, political developments, and emerging trade patterns. As the region navigates its path forward, industry stakeholders are presented with a mix of challenges and opportunities that will define the upcoming year.
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The Trump Presidency and Latin America
One of the most significant factors influencing the logistics sector in 2025 is the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. The potential imposition of tariffs and a focus on reshaping U.S.-Latin American trade relations stand out as key concerns. While targeted tariffs on goods such as machinery and industrial components are likely worrying many companies, these measures may also create openings for Latin American countries. For instance, Mexico’s critical role in the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade corridor underscores its resilience, even amidst potential policy disruptions.
Similarly, Argentina and Brazil are poised to benefit from the evolving U.S.-China trade war. Brazil’s expanding export relationship with China positions it as a critical player in global supply chains, while Argentina’s economic recovery under the Javier Milei administration is fostering an environment ripe for investment and trade growth.
Opportunities in Key Economies
Mexico
Mexico’s geographical advantage and its integration into the North American supply chain remain pivotal. The country is likely to capitalize on near-shoring trends and the redirection of manufacturing away from China. Despite uncertainties in U.S.-Mexico relations, Mexican policymakers’ expertise in navigating trade negotiations ensures a stable environment for logistics providers.
Brazil
Brazil’s economic performance in 2024 has set a strong foundation for 2025. While currency devaluation poses challenges, the nation’s thriving trade relationship with China and the anticipated ratification of the Mercosur-EU free trade agreement offer promising avenues for growth. However, inflationary pressures and domestic policy adjustments could temper the pace of expansion.
Argentina
Argentina’s exit from recession and the stabilization of its currency mark a turning point for its economy. Reduced inflation and lifted currency restrictions are expected to drive significant growth in imports and exports, particularly in sectors like oil and gas. The country’s logistics providers stand to benefit from an uptick in trade activity.
Sector-Specific Trends
Cross-border E-commerce
The shift in global trade dynamics, especially U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, creates a fertile ground for Latin American manufacturers to gain a stronger foothold in the U.S. market. The activewear and textile sectors, in particular, are positioned to capitalize on competitive pricing and high-quality production, fostering robust growth in cross-border e-commerce.
Food Trade
Latin America’s intra-regional food trade presents untapped potential. With only 25% of food products traded within the region, compared to 45% in Asia, there is ample room for growth. Expanding regional trade networks could enhance economic resilience and strengthen local supply chains.
IA and Productivity
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative tool for the logistics sector in Latin America. While automation remains limited, AI-driven solutions are enhancing productivity by optimizing operations and improving decision-making processes. This technological boost addresses the region’s longstanding productivity challenges, providing a competitive edge in global markets.
Navigating Risks
Despite opportunities, Latin America faces significant risks. Climate-related challenges, such as flooding and water shortages, combined with security concerns, could disrupt logistics operations. Countries like Colombia, Mexico, and Guatemala are particularly vulnerable, underscoring the need for comprehensive risk management strategies. AMI has developed a logistics risk index for 18 Latin American countries. Contact AMI’s logistics practice leader, Diego Rodriguez, to set up a quick call where he can explain the risk index and show which markets present the biggest challenges in terms of risks.
Next Steps
Contact us to find out more about how market intelligence can help your company deal with the 2025 risks that concern it the most.
Strategic data can make the difference between defusing a threat or suffering the consequences of it. In some cases, monitoring threats continually allows companies to be ready to take action quickly—and we can help with this as well.
The same applies to opportunities: an experienced analysis of the market can reveal new areas that could drive extra revenue streams.
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